Hochul Leads Blakeman by 11 Points in New York Governor's Race; Majority Say It's Time for New Leadership

Key Findings

Poll Graphics

Partisan Dynamics

The race shows near-total partisan sorting, with very little crossover vote at this stage. Among Democrats (44% of the sample), Hochul leads 78–8%, with the remainder undecided or choosing Sharpe. Among Republicans (21% of the sample), Blakeman leads decisively at 96–2%. The battleground lies among unaffiliated and minor-party voters (31% of the sample), where Hochul leads 37–27%, but 27% remain undecided and 10% name Sharpe — leaving considerable room for the race to tighten.

The scale of Blakeman's advantage among Republicans (+94 net) reflects consolidation typical of an incumbent-challenger contest at this stage of the cycle. The question heading into 2026 is whether Hochul can hold her margins among unaffiliated voters — who make up nearly a third of the electorate — against a well-funded Nassau County Executive with suburban name recognition.

Regional Breakdown

Geographic variation is sharp. Hochul's margin is driven almost entirely by New York City and its immediate suburbs, while the upstate contest narrows significantly.

Note: In the head-to-head matchup, the upstate race narrows further to a near-tie, with Blakeman edging Hochul 45–44% in that region — a notable vulnerability for the incumbent if turnout patterns shift from 2022.

GOP Primary Snapshot

Asked of all respondents, Blakeman leads a hypothetical two-way Republican primary: Blakeman 37%, Sharpe 13%, Undecided 50%. The high undecided share reflects the early timing of this poll and Sharpe's near-universal lack of name recognition — 64% of all respondents have never heard of him. Among self-identified Republicans specifically, Blakeman's advantage is far more decisive: Blakeman 88% · Sharpe 2% · Undecided 10% (n=48).

Top Issues

When asked to name the most important issue in deciding their vote for governor, respondents cited the following:

Cost of living and inflation dominate the issue landscape by a wide margin, consistent with national polling environments in 2025–26. Taxes rank second, a theme likely amplified by New York's high cost burden. Crime and public safety — a defining issue in the 2022 cycle — remains in the top three but is no longer the singular driver it was under Eric Adams and the post-COVID crime surge.